The latest Texas Employment Forecast from the Dallas Fed projects a 1.7 percent increase in state job growth for 2026. This outlook suggests the addition of 241,300 jobs by the end of the year, bringing the total statewide employment to 14.6 million by December. Analysts estimate an 80 percent confidence band for this projection between 1.3 and 2.1 percent growth.
Recent data shows a slight decline in July, with the state losing 1,480 jobs, an annualized decrease of 0.1 percent. This brings the year-to-date growth rate to 1.6 percent, which sits below the long-term state average of 2 percent. Despite this dip, economists note that overall growth remains steady even while labor supply remains tight across the state.
Sector performance varied significantly during July. Construction, financial activities, and manufacturing faced losses, alongside government and information services. However, these declines were offset by gains in professional and business services, education, health services, and leisure and hospitality. The oil and gas sector also saw positive movement during the month.
The Texas Leading Index remained unchanged over the three months ending in July. Negative pressures from lower real oil prices and rising unemployment claims were balanced by gains in the help-wanted index, stock market performance, and increased well permits. The forecast model pulls from several data sources, including U.S. gross domestic product, oil futures, and regional economic benchmarks to provide this outlook.
This forecast serves as a critical indicator for businesses operating within the state as they prepare for the remainder of the year. The Dallas Fed will release the next update on September 18.