Potential World Cup manipulation on Polymarket flagged by sports advisory group

A new report from the Group of Copenhagen details suspicious betting activity surrounding the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Researchers monitored 104 matches and flagged 15 games for further investigation due to irregularities in prediction markets.

One central focus of the report is the online prediction site Polymarket. The research highlights a specific market that opened on July 2 regarding U.S. striker Folarin Balogun. This market appeared on the same day Balogun received a red card, yet FIFA later overturned the ban following intervention from U.S. officials. This chain of events raises concerns about potential insider information used to place trades.

Additional findings show massive bets were placed on Spain failing to beat Cape Verde. While Spain was a heavy tournament favorite, the game resulted in a goalless draw, fueling questions about market integrity. Experts note that these irregularities do not confirm illegal action, and FIFA has officially stated they identified no suspicious betting activity during the tournament.

Prediction markets have seen a massive surge in volume during this World Cup cycle. Platforms like Kalshi report over a billion dollars in trades and millions of new users. As the scale of these markets grows, regulatory bodies remain focused on the potential for manipulation and the impact of non-public information on market outcomes.