A spent SpaceX Falcon 9 upper stage is on a direct path to strike the Moon this Wednesday at roughly 8,700 kilometers per hour. The collision will occur near Einstein Crater around 06:35 UTC. While this impact is accidental and poses no threat to Earth, it serves as a stark reminder of the growing amount of debris orbiting our lunar neighbor.
Independent astronomer Bill Gray confirmed the trajectory after months of tracking the object. The rocket, which launched in January 2025 carrying private landers, has been drifting through a complex orbit shaped by Earth, the Moon, and the Sun. Experts at the Los Alamos National Laboratory estimate the crash will release energy equivalent to three tons of TNT, likely carving out a crater 27 meters wide and 5 meters deep.
Although the impact flash will be brief and difficult to spot against the sunlit lunar surface, the resulting dust plume may be visible to telescopes on Earth. Orbiters like NASA’s Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter and South Korea’s Danuri are positioned to capture data on the collision. This event provides a unique opportunity for scientists to calibrate impact models, which are increasingly relevant as space agencies and private companies plan for long-term lunar missions.
This incident marks the second known accidental lunar crash by a discarded rocket stage. As the Moon becomes a destination for habitats and regular cargo traffic, the tracking and management of orbital debris are becoming urgent priorities. Future lunar infrastructure will need to account for the risk of falling dust and rubble from these types of impacts. For now, astronomers are treating this as a high-stakes field test to improve their understanding of lunar traffic and collision hazards.