2026 3M Open odds, picks, field: Surprising predictions from golf model that's nailed 17 majors

The 2026 3M Open tees off this week at TPC Twin Cities, and the field is ready for action in the Minneapolis metro area. Scottie Scheffler enters the tournament as the heavy favorite at +260 following his strong showing at the British Open. While Scheffler draws the most attention, the field contains several other notable players looking to secure a victory before the upcoming playoffs begin in mid-August.

SportsLine’s analytical model has simulated the tournament 10,000 times to project the leaderboard and identify value bets. The results offer a different perspective on the field than the current odds suggest. While some favorites struggle to meet expectations on this specific layout, other players with longer odds show indicators that point toward a high finish.

One significant prediction from the model involves Maverick McNealy. Despite entering with short odds of +2500, the data suggests he faces an uphill climb this week. His recent performance metrics in approach play and driving accuracy indicate he may not replicate top-tier results at TPC Twin Cities. This makes him a candidate to fade for those building their tournament cards.

Conversely, the model highlights Johnny Keefer as a player to watch at +6000. Coming off a third-place finish at the Scottish Open, Keefer ranks near the top of the tour in greens in regulation percentage. Because TPC Twin Cities favors iron play over putting performance, his current ball-striking form makes him a primary target for those seeking potential upside in their wagers.

As the final stretch of the season approaches, these insights provide a baseline for evaluating the field at the 3M Open. Investors and fans can use these projected outcomes to assess the risk and reward associated with the current betting market.