Russian central bank cuts GDP growth forecast to zero, expects faster inflation

The Central Bank of Russia has lowered its GDP growth forecast for 2026, setting expectations at 0.0 to 1.0 percent. This adjustment reflects an economy under pressure from supply shocks and restricted capacity. Officials cite the ongoing fuel crisis, which has driven price increases across various goods and services, as a primary factor in this slowdown.

Inflation is now expected to reach 6 to 7 percent for the year, a significant increase from previous forecasts of 4.5 to 5.5 percent. Higher inflation expectations among households and businesses are complicating the path toward price stability. Central bank head Elvira Nabiullina noted that fuel shortages in several regions, caused by strikes on refineries, have placed an added burden on the national economy.

While the bank anticipates that fuel production capacity will return to normal levels by the end of the year, the current economic reality remains difficult. Companies report that they expect demand to slow in the coming months. These projections indicate a period of stagnation for the Russian economy as it deals with the direct impact of recent logistics and infrastructure disruptions.