‘We can’t make it better again’: what Europe’s wildfires tell us about the climate crisis

Stefan Rahmstorf, a veteran climatologist with the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, spent decades studying the mechanics of global warming. Last week, his professional focus became a personal reality during a holiday in southwestern France. While surfing off the Atlantic coast, he watched massive plumes of smoke darken the sky as wildfires burned through the Gironde region. The atmosphere turned an orange tint as the fire generated its own weather systems, forcing him to cut his trip short and navigate through smoke-choked transit routes back to Germany.

This summer marks a record-breaking period of heat and fire across the European Union. More land has burned in France this year than in any previous year on record, while heatwaves have triggered evacuations for over 300,000 residents across France and Spain. Scientific data indicates that the current level of soil dryness in western Europe—a primary driver for these large-scale blazes—is five times more likely to occur due to human-induced climate factors. These heatwaves are estimated to have caused at least 10,000 deaths and resulted in 2 billion euros in agricultural losses for grain farmers.

Rahmstorf notes that while these disasters align with scientific models developed over decades, they are arriving with greater speed and intensity than early projections suggested. Oil industry documents from the 1970s confirm that major fossil fuel companies understood the correlation between carbon emissions and global temperature increases long before it became a mainstream political topic. Despite this historical data, policy efforts remain inconsistent. The European Commission recently proposed modifications to its emissions trading system, a move that critics argue weakens the primary mechanism intended to curb pollution.

For those hoping for a return to past environmental conditions, Rahmstorf offers a sobering perspective. Because carbon dioxide persists in the atmosphere for thousands of years, there is no mechanism to reverse the damage already done to the climate system. Current efforts are no longer about restoration. Instead, the focus for policymakers and global institutions must shift toward preventing further escalation of these events. The window to stabilize the climate is closing, and the urgency of the current summer serves as a clear indicator of the new environmental baseline.