The National Hurricane Center is tracking Potential Tropical Cyclone One-C, currently located over 1,000 miles east-southeast of Honolulu. Forecasters expect the system to reach tropical storm strength by Friday at the latest, at which point it will likely be named Hernan. The primary concern for Hawaii is heavy rainfall, which is predicted to start on the Big Island on Friday before moving toward Maui and the rest of the island chain throughout the weekend.
While rainfall totals will vary, projections indicate widespread accumulations between 5 and 10 inches. Certain areas could see as much as 20 inches of rain. This level of precipitation poses a high risk for life-threatening flooding and mudslides, particularly in mountainous terrain. The National Hurricane Center also warns that gusty winds may down power lines and trees as the system passes near the islands.
The current track suggests the system will move near or over Hawaii as a strong tropical storm. Although a hurricane landfall remains possible, the main threat is the projected rainfall. Residents and visitors should monitor official updates from the National Hurricane Center as the situation develops over the coming days.
This weather event occurs during an active Eastern Pacific hurricane season. Activity is currently running about nine days ahead of historical averages. This accelerated pace is consistent with a strengthening El Niño event and higher-than-average sea-surface temperatures in the region.