Apple prepares to enter the foldable smartphone market with the upcoming launch of its first foldable iPhone. Industry data suggests this release will significantly shift current market trends. Research firm IDC estimates that Apple will ship over 10 million units of the new device within its first year on the market. This figure represents a bold entry into a category that has previously seen limited mainstream adoption.
Market Projections and Industry Impact
Nabila Popal, senior research director at IDC, provided this shipment outlook to Bloomberg. The projection remains high despite rumors that the foldable iPhone could carry a price tag near $2,500. This entry happens as other manufacturers struggle to maintain dominance. Samsung, currently a major player in the foldable segment, saw its market share sit at 40% in 2025. Analysts anticipate this will drop to 32% as consumers shift their interest toward the new Apple hardware.
Counterpoint Research data aligns with these findings. Their analysts expect book-style foldable devices to represent 76% of all global foldable shipments in 2026. This is a sharp rise from 52% in 2025. Apple’s arrival serves as a catalyst for growth. The total foldable market is expected to expand by 21% year over year as a direct result of this launch. This move appears timed to avert a potential double-digit decline in the category.
Strategic Importance for Apple
Apple scheduled a major event for September 9 titled Surprise and Shine. Observers expect the company to showcase the foldable iPhone at this gathering. If the device reaches the 10 million shipment mark, it confirms a strong consumer appetite for high-end, experimental designs. The phone, often referred to in trade reports as the iPhone Ultra, seeks to define a new tier of hardware for the company. While past skepticism persisted, these shipment targets suggest Apple sees long-term value in the form factor.
Looking further out, the industry landscape shows potential for continued concentration. IDC predicts that Apple could claim 40% of all foldable shipments by 2027. This suggests the company expects to reach a scale that rivals or exceeds its current competitors. The shift toward larger, flexible screens reflects a broader industry move. Whether this device becomes a standard fixture in the company's lineup or remains a niche offering will depend on the actual user reception after the September launch.